The 538 team discusses whether average polling error in presidential elections could translate into a landslide victory for either candidate. 538’s Galen Druke and ...

Here's everything that goes into this year's model. On Tuesday, 538 released its 2024 election forecast for the House of Representatives. The general idea behind our forecast is to combine polling ...

The 538 team discusses whether average polling error in presidential elections could translate into a landslide victory for either candidate. Good Morning America ...

Donald Trump's chances of beating Kamala Harris in the 2024 election have improved in recent days, although the vice president is still considered the slight favorite overall, according to ...

But a normal polling error could also result in one candidate winning easily. According to 538's latest election forecast, Vice President Kamala Harris has a 57-in ...

On Tuesday, 538 released its 2024 election forecast for the House of Representatives.The general idea behind our forecast is to combine polling data (say, on which party Americans want to control ...

We’ll use 538’s averages of polling since the ... You’ll often see, as elections grind on, maps of predicted outcomes by state, with swing states depicted with a color indicating which ...

The position of the flag indicates whether the organization is partisan. Organizations are considered partisan if they operate on behalf of a candidate, party, campaign committee, PAC, super PAC, ...

Early voting has now started in several states, but who ends up winning the White House and Congress could take days after ...

In modern elections, how people vote in congressional elections has become increasingly correlated with their presidential vote — to the point where the most important thing to get right is the ...