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快速增强台风预测研究获进展
台风快速增强定义为24小时内最大持续风速增加超过13米/秒,是台风突变致灾的主要原因。然而,快速增强事件仅占所有台风事件的5%,且受复杂物理机制影响,因此传统的数值和统计模型的预报准确率仅为50%。现有深度学习模型将预报准确率提升至82%,但误报率达27%。
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